The Jobs Report – March 2024

Highlight

The March jobs report showed an increase of 303K stronger than last month’s 270K gain. Expectations were at 214K, so it was a substantially better report than anticipated. Last month was revised down 5K, but January was revised up by 27K. Most revisions have been down for the past year, so the net upward revision is noteworthy.

What You Should To Know:

• The household survey was also strong with an addition of 498K jobs in March. The labor force increased by 469K, so the unemployment rate declined to 3.8%. The strong household report reverses weaker reports from the past several months and seems now in line with the establishment report.  
• Job gains were widespread throughout the economy. Goods producing jobs surged in line with recent surveys showing renewed strength in the manufacturing sector. Strong sectors include Education and Health Care, Leasure and Hospitality, and the Government sector.  
• The index of hours worked increased by 0.6, adding to last month’s gain. After dipping in January, this index has rebounded which is a positive for Q1 GDP growth. Average Hourly Earnings gained +0.3% in March as expected and February was revised up to 0.2% from 0.1%, bringing the YoY to 4.1% versus the prior reading of 4.3%, the lowest since July 2021.  
• Overall, the March employment report was solid. Job growth was strong and broad based. The economy is rebounding from its uneven performance last fall as the distortions from the labor strike are out of the data. This report should be good news for the Fed and the markets. Job growth is solid, drawing more people into the job market, but wage growth is moderating and not showing signs of overheating, potentially pushing inflation higher. We believe that inflation will continue to moderate this year giving the Fed the room to ease policy later this year.