The Jobs Report – January 2024

Highlight

During January the economy added 353K jobs, much stronger than the expected gain of 185K. December and November gains were revised higher to 333K and 182K, adding an additional 126K jobs for the last two months of 2023. The revisions for most of the past year have been downward, so the large December revision is noteworthy. For the year the total downward revisions were 317K.

What You Should To Know:

• The Household survey showed a loss of 31K jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged from December at 3.7%.  
• The job gains were spread throughout the economy. The most significant job gains were in private education and health care with 112K jobs. Almost all sectors showed gains including temporary workers. This sector is considered a leading indicator within the jobs report and has consistently lost jobs, so the gain of 4K, although small, is impressive.
• One negative for the economy as we enter 2024 is the fall of 0.3 in the index of hours worked for January. The index was also down by 0.1 in December. Also, overtime hours MoM fell by 0.1 in January, moving the YoY number to 2.7 from 3.0. 
• The jobs report for January was strong across the economy. Has the economy started a new upturn as we step into 2024? The recent ISM manufacturing survey and this jobs report suggest this might be the case. The Fed cutting rates later in Q1 seems less likely and the case for a soft landing, or no landing got much easier to make.