Flight to safety flows, especially from overseas buyers, have recently put downward pressure on long-dated treasury yields. Recent geopolitical disquiet and the Coronavirus have been the primary drivers of the increased demand for safe-haven assets. As the front end of the yield curve has been supported by the Fed’s on hold monetary policy stance, global growth concerns have made investors comfortable taking on more interest rate risk. Parts of the curve first inverted last summer on similar growth concerns due to the trade war with China and dismal economic activity abroad. The Fed responded with three interest rate cuts and an expansion of their balance sheet. Interestingly, the odds of an additional fourth interest rate cut by the FOMC at their June meeting have recently spiked to almost 25% since the outbreak of the virus. If probabilities continue to increase, look for the Fed to actually deliver on that cut!